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Bad Beat
generalA loss that occurs in an unlikely or devastating fashion, often when the bettor was heavily favored to win.
Key Takeaways
- 1Bad beats are unlikely losses from dominant positions
- 2They are a mathematical certainty over time
- 3Never chase losses after a bad beat
- 4Judge your bets by the decision quality, not the outcome
What is a Bad Beat?
A bad beat is a loss that occurs in an improbable or heartbreaking way. The term is used across sports betting, poker, and casino games to describe situations where a bettor or player was in a dominant position but lost due to an unlikely turn of events.
Sports Betting Examples
- You bet the under 47.5 in an NFL game. The score is 20-24 with 10 seconds left. The losing team throws a meaningless 80-yard touchdown as time expires. Final score: 27-24. The over hits.
- You have a 4-leg parlay and the first 3 legs win easily. The 4th leg loses on a last-second buzzer beater.
In Poker
Bad beats are legendary in poker. Going all-in with pocket Aces and losing to someone who hit a runner-runner flush is a classic bad beat.
How to Handle Bad Beats
- Accept variance — Bad beats are a mathematical certainty over time
- Don't chase — The worst response is to immediately place a revenge bet
- Review the decision, not the outcome — If your analysis was sound, the bet was correct regardless of the result
- Maintain bankroll discipline — This is exactly why you never bet more than you can afford to lose