Advanced Theory
Deep dives into Expected Value, Kelly Criterion, Closing Line Value, variance, and professional betting concepts.
Expected Value (+EV) Betting: The Foundation of Profitable Gambling
How to identify and exploit positive expected value opportunities in sports betting.
Expected Value (EV) Deep Dive: The Foundation of All Gambling Math
Every gambling decision comes down to one question: is this bet +EV or -EV? Here's how to calculate it for any situation.
The Kelly Criterion: Optimal Bet Sizing for Maximum Growth
The mathematical formula that tells you exactly how much to bet. Used by professional gamblers, hedge funds, and anyone who takes edge seriously.
Implied Probability and No-Vig Lines: Reading the True Market
How to strip the bookmaker's margin from the odds and see what the market really thinks about an event.
Variance, Standard Deviation, and Sample Size: When Can You Trust Your Results?
How many bets do you need before your results mean anything? The math behind confidence intervals in sports betting.
Market Efficiency in Sports Betting: Can You Really Beat the Books?
Are sports betting markets efficient? Where do inefficiencies exist? And how long do edges last before the market corrects?
The Psychology of Gambling: Cognitive Biases That Cost You Money
Your brain is wired to make bad gambling decisions. Here are the cognitive biases you need to overcome.
Building a Sports Betting Model: A Step-by-Step Framework
How professional bettors build statistical models to find value. A practical framework you can start using today.
Regression to the Mean: Why Hot Streaks Don't Last
Ever wondered why that incredible winning streak came to an end? This article explores the statistical concept of regression to the mean, explaining why hot streaks in gambling are often followed by a return to average performance. Learn the difference between this phenomenon and the gambler's fallacy, and gain practical advice for navigating the ups and downs of your betting journey.
Bayesian Thinking for Bettors: Updating Your Beliefs
In the world of gambling, where uncertainty is the only certainty, bettors are constantly searching for an edge. This article will guide you through the fundamentals of Bayesian thinking and its practical applications in the gambling world, showing you how to make smarter, more informed betting decisions.
Monte Carlo Simulation: Testing Your Betting Strategy
Unsure if your betting strategy is a winner or just a lucky streak? This article demystifies the Monte Carlo simulation, a powerful tool to test your betting systems, manage risk, and understand the true role of luck in your long-term profitability.
Elo Ratings Explained: Predicting Match Outcomes
Dive into the world of Elo ratings, a powerful system for quantifying player skill and predicting match outcomes. This article breaks down the history, mathematics, and practical applications of Elo, showing you how to leverage it for more informed betting decisions.
Correlation in Parlays: Same-Game Parlay Math
Unlock the secrets of Same-Game Parlays. This article demystifies the complex math of correlation, explaining how sportsbooks price SGPs and revealing the 'hidden juice' that affects your payouts. Learn to be a smarter bettor by understanding the link between outcomes.
Staking Plans Compared: Flat, Kelly, Fibonacci, and More
A disciplined approach to bankroll management is what separates successful bettors from the rest. This article explores various staking plans, from the simple Flat Betting to the complex Kelly Criterion, to help you choose the best strategy for your betting style and risk tolerance.
The Mathematics of Casino Games: Complete House Edge Reference
Delve into the mathematical advantage that casinos have in every game. This comprehensive guide explains the house edge and provides a complete reference for popular casino games, helping you make informed decisions.