Back to Encyclopedia
Key Numbers
sports bettingIn football betting, the most common margins of victory (3 and 7) that significantly impact point spread betting.
Key Takeaways
- 13 and 7 are the most important key numbers in football
- 2~15% of NFL games are decided by exactly 3 points
- 3Getting the right side of a key number is crucial
- 4Buying points and teasers are most valuable around key numbers
What are Key Numbers?
Key numbers in football betting are the most common final margins of victory. The two most important key numbers are 3 and 7, because touchdowns (7 points) and field goals (3 points) are the primary scoring plays.
NFL Margin of Victory Distribution
| Margin | Frequency |
|---|---|
| 3 | ~15% of games |
| 7 | ~9% of games |
| 6 | ~6% of games |
| 10 | ~6% of games |
| 4 | ~5% of games |
| 1 | ~5% of games |
Why Key Numbers Matter
The difference between -2.5 and -3.5 is massive because ~15% of NFL games are decided by exactly 3 points. Getting the right side of a key number can be the difference between winning and losing.
Practical Applications
- Buying points through key numbers (e.g., -3 to -2.5) can be worth the extra juice
- Line shopping is most valuable around key numbers
- Teasers that cross through 3 and 7 are the most valuable
Beyond Football
Basketball doesn't have key numbers in the same way because scoring is more granular. Hockey and baseball are typically bet on the moneyline, making key numbers less relevant.