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Positive Expected Value

sports betting

A bet has a positive expected value (+EV) when the probability of it winning is greater than the odds offered by the sportsbook imply. Consistently making +EV bets is a key strategy for long-term profitability in sports betting.

Key Takeaways

  • 1A bet has a positive expected value (+EV) when the probability of it winning is greater than the odd

Positive Expected Value

A bet has a positive expected value (+EV) when the probability of it winning is greater than the odds offered by the sportsbook imply. Consistently making +EV bets is a key strategy for long-term profitability in sports betting.

Example

If a coin toss pays even money (+100), but you have information that the coin is biased and has a 55% chance of landing on heads, betting on heads would be a +EV bet.

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Expected Value + Kelly Criterion + Monte Carlo — the same math from MIT and Bell Labs.