Square

What is a Square?

A Square is a term used in the gambling world, particularly in sports betting, to describe a recreational or amateur bettor. Squares make up the vast majority of the betting public. They are typically casual fans who bet for fun, to make a game more exciting, or based on gut feelings and popular opinion. The term is often used in contrast to a Sharp, which refers to a professional and knowledgeable bettor who wagers for profit and relies on sophisticated analysis.

Squares are the lifeblood of the sports betting industry, providing the liquidity that allows sportsbooks to operate. Their betting patterns are often predictable, as they tend to favor popular teams, favorites, and overs (betting that the total score will be higher than the line set by the sportsbook). This predictability is what sharps and sportsbooks often try to exploit.

How It Works

The behavior of a square bettor is characterized by several key traits:

• Betting on Favorites: Squares overwhelmingly tend to bet on the favorite team to win. This is often driven by media hype and the general public perception that the favorite is the better team and therefore more likely to win.
• Following Public Opinion: Squares are heavily influenced by public sentiment and media narratives. They are more likely to bet on a team that is getting a lot of positive press coverage, regardless of the underlying statistics or value in the betting line.
• Emotional Betting: Unlike sharps, who approach betting with a cold and calculated mindset, squares often let their emotions guide their decisions. They might bet on their favorite team to win out of loyalty, or against a team they dislike.
• Chasing Losses: A common mistake made by square bettors is chasing losses. After a losing bet, they might increase their wager size on the next bet in an attempt to win back their money quickly. This is a dangerous and often costly strategy.
• Lack of Research: The most defining characteristic of a square is the lack of in-depth research before placing a bet. They may not analyze statistics, consider historical trends, or shop for the best lines. Their bets are often impulsive and based on superficial information.

Example of a Square's Betting Pattern

Let's consider a hypothetical NFL game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Chiefs are the reigning Super Bowl champions and have a star quarterback, making them a very popular team. The betting line is set with the Chiefs as 7-point favorites.

A square bettor, being a casual fan, is likely to bet on the Chiefs to cover the spread. Their reasoning might be as simple as, “The Chiefs are the best team in the league, they will definitely win by more than a touchdown.” They might also bet the “over” on the total points, expecting a high-scoring game with two explosive offenses.

A sharp bettor, on the other hand, would conduct a much more thorough analysis. They would look at the injury report, analyze the teams' recent performances, consider the historical matchup between the two teams, and compare the betting lines across different sportsbooks to find the best value. The sharp might conclude that the public is overvaluing the Chiefs and that the 7-point spread is too high. They might then bet on the Jaguars to cover the spread, taking a contrarian position to the public.

Why It Matters: The Role of Squares in the Betting Ecosystem

Squares play a crucial role in the sports betting ecosystem. Their predictable betting patterns create opportunities for both sportsbooks and sharp bettors. Sportsbooks often adjust their lines based on the volume of money coming in from squares. If a large majority of the public is betting on one side of a game, the sportsbook will move the line to encourage more betting on the other side, thereby balancing their action and guaranteeing a profit.

This line movement created by the influx of square money is what sharps look for. They often take a contrarian approach, betting against the public. This is often referred to as “fading the public.” By betting against the square money, sharps are often able to get a better line and find value in their bets.

In essence, the money from squares creates the market inefficiencies that sharps exploit. Without squares, the sports betting market would be much more efficient, and it would be much harder for professional bettors to make a profit.

How to Avoid Being a Square

While there is nothing wrong with being a square and betting for fun, most bettors would prefer to win more often than they lose. To transition from a square to a more sophisticated bettor, one can adopt the following practices:

• Do Your Research: The most important step is to do your homework. Analyze statistics, read previews from multiple sources, and don't just rely on the mainstream media narrative.
• Shop for the Best Lines: Don't just place your bets at one sportsbook. Open accounts at multiple sportsbooks and compare the lines to make sure you are getting the best possible price.
• Manage Your Bankroll: Set a budget for your betting and stick to it. Never bet more than you can afford to lose and avoid chasing losses.
• Think in Terms of Value: Don't just bet on who you think will win. Instead, look for value in the betting line. Is the price being offered on a particular outcome a good value relative to its true probability?
• Be Contrarian: Don't be afraid to bet against the public. Often, the best value can be found on the side that the public is ignoring.

By following these principles, a casual bettor can improve their chances of success and move beyond the label of a “square.” It requires discipline, patience, and a willingness to learn, but the rewards can be well worth the effort.