NHL Back-to-Back Games Strategy Guide

The Grind of the Game: A Bettor's Guide to NHL Back-to-Back Games

The NHL season is a marathon, not a sprint. Teams endure a grueling 82-game schedule, and one of the most challenging aspects of that schedule is the back-to-back game scenario. Playing two games in two nights, often in two different cities, can take a significant toll on a team's performance. For astute sports bettors, understanding how to analyze and bet on back-to-back games can be a source of consistent profit. This guide will break down the key factors to consider when betting on teams playing in back-to-back situations.

The Impact of Back-to-Back Games

It's no secret that playing on consecutive nights is a disadvantage. Fatigue is the most obvious factor, as players have less time to rest and recover between games. This can lead to a decrease in performance, an increase in mental errors, and a higher risk of injury.

According to a study by NHLTips.ca, NHL teams average .108 fewer points per game when playing on the second night of a back-to-back. This represents a 5% decrease in point production and, theoretically, a 5% downgrade in win probability.

Key Factors to Analyze

Not all back-to-back situations are created equal. Here are some of the key factors to analyze when handicapping these games:

Travel

Travel is a major consideration. A team that has to travel between games is at a significant disadvantage compared to a team that gets to play both games at home. The longer the travel, the more it will impact the players' fatigue levels.

Goaltending

In most back-to-back situations, teams will start their backup goaltender in one of the two games. This is a crucial piece of information for bettors. If a team's backup goalie is significantly weaker than their starter, it can create a great betting opportunity. Always check the starting goaltenders before placing a bet.

Opponent's Schedule

It's not just about the team playing the back-to-back. You also need to consider the opponent's schedule. A team that is well-rested and waiting at home for a tired opponent has a major advantage. On the other hand, if both teams are playing on the second night of a back-to-back, the playing field is more level.

Team Depth

A deep team with four solid lines and a strong defensive corps is better equipped to handle the rigors of a back-to-back than a team that relies heavily on its top players. Look for teams with a balanced roster and a history of success in these situations.

Home vs. Road

A team playing a back-to-back at home is in a much better position than a team playing a back-to-back on the road. The home team doesn't have to travel and gets to sleep in their own beds, which can make a big difference in their energy levels.

Betting Strategies

Here are a few strategies for betting on NHL back-to-back games:

• Fade Tired Road Teams: Teams playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road, especially if they had to travel a long distance, are often a good fade. Look for opportunities to bet against these teams, particularly if they are facing a well-rested opponent.
• Target Home Teams: A well-rested home team facing a tired road team is one of the most profitable betting angles in the NHL.
• Consider the Under: Fatigued teams often play a more conservative style of hockey, which can lead to lower-scoring games. If both teams are playing on the second night of a back-to-back, the under can be a good bet.
• Look for Value on the Backup Goalie: If a team's backup goalie is a capable netminder, there can be value in betting on them, as the public will often overreact to the fact that the starter is not playing.

Conclusion

Betting on NHL back-to-back games requires a careful analysis of several factors. By considering the travel schedule, goaltending matchups, opponent's schedule, and team depth, you can gain a significant edge over the sportsbooks. Remember to always do your research, shop for the best lines, and bet responsibly.