Expected Value (+EV) Betting: The Foundation of Profitable Gambling

Expected Value: The Only Metric That Matters

Expected Value (EV) is the single most important concept in all of gambling. Every professional bettor, every casino, and every sportsbook operates on this principle.

The Formula

EV = (Probability of Winning × Profit if Win) - (Probability of Losing × Loss if Lose)

Finding +EV Bets

A bet is +EV when the odds offered are better than the true probability. There are several ways to estimate true probability:

1. Power ratings: Build your own model to rate teams
2. Closing line: Use the closing line at sharp books as a proxy for true probability
3. Market consensus: Compare odds across many sportsbooks to find outliers
4. Statistical models: Use historical data to build predictive models

Example

You estimate Team A has a 55% chance of winning. The sportsbook offers +110.

• EV = (0.55 × $110) - (0.45 × $100)
• EV = $60.50 - $45.00 = +$15.50 per $100 bet

This is a strong +EV bet.

The Long Run

+EV betting doesn't guarantee profit on any single bet. It guarantees profit over a large sample of bets. This is why bankroll management and emotional discipline are essential companions to +EV identification.

Common Pitfalls

1. Overestimating your edge: Small errors in probability estimation flip +EV to -EV
2. Ignoring the vig: Always factor in the juice when calculating EV
3. Small sample thinking: Don't judge your strategy on 50 bets — you need hundreds or thousands
4. Confirmation bias: Don't only count the wins when evaluating your model