Monte Carlo Simulation

The Variance Machine

Run 20 parallel betting seasons simultaneously. Same win rate, same strategy — wildly different outcomes. This is variance.

Win Rate: 55%

Simulations: 20

Bets Each: 200

Profitable Seasons

14 / 20 (70%)

Best Outcome

$3291

Worst Outcome

$-1673

Average P&L

$704

$3400

$-2664

$0 line

Worst: $-1673Best: $3291

Only 14 of 20 seasons were profitable despite a 55% win rate. The spread between best ($3291) and worst ($-1673) is 4964 — that's variance.