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Prediction Markets
Bet on real-world events — elections, entertainment, technology, sports futures. Prediction markets are the purest form of probability trading. Find mispriced contracts and profit.
Will the 2026 midterm elections flip the House?
politics•Vol: $2.5M•Ends: 11/3/2026
YES
42¢
NO
58¢
+3.2%
Implied: 42% YESImplied: 58% NO
Will a third-party candidate win any state in 2028?
politics•Vol: $0.9M•Ends: 11/5/2028
YES
8¢
NO
92¢
-1.1%
Implied: 8% YESImplied: 92% NO
Will the US pass a federal sports betting bill by 2027?
politics•Vol: $1.2M•Ends: 12/31/2027
YES
22¢
NO
78¢
+0.5%
Implied: 22% YESImplied: 78% NO
Will the UK hold a general election before 2029?
politics•Vol: $0.6M•Ends: 1/1/2029
YES
15¢
NO
85¢
-0.3%
Implied: 15% YESImplied: 85% NO
Will the next James Bond film gross over $1B worldwide?
entertainment•Vol: $0.8M•Ends: 12/31/2027
YES
35¢
NO
65¢
+2.1%
Implied: 35% YESImplied: 65% NO
Will Taylor Swift announce a new album in 2026?
entertainment•Vol: $1.5M•Ends: 12/31/2026
YES
72¢
NO
28¢
+5%
Implied: 72% YESImplied: 28% NO
Will a streaming service win Best Picture at the Oscars 2027?
entertainment•Vol: $0.4M•Ends: 3/15/2027
YES
55¢
NO
45¢
+1.8%
Implied: 55% YESImplied: 45% NO
Will GTA VI sell 50M+ copies in its first month?
entertainment•Vol: $3.2M•Ends: 12/31/2026
YES
60¢
NO
40¢
-2.5%
Implied: 60% YESImplied: 40% NO
Will SpaceX land humans on Mars before 2030?
technology•Vol: $4.5M•Ends: 1/1/2030
YES
12¢
NO
88¢
+0.8%
Implied: 12% YESImplied: 88% NO
Will Apple release AR glasses in 2026?
technology•Vol: $2.1M•Ends: 12/31/2026
YES
38¢
NO
62¢
-3.2%
Implied: 38% YESImplied: 62% NO
Will Bitcoin reach $200K before 2027?
technology•Vol: $8.9M•Ends: 1/1/2027
YES
25¢
NO
75¢
+4.5%
Implied: 25% YESImplied: 75% NO
Will an AI system pass the Turing Test by 2027?
technology•Vol: $1.8M•Ends: 12/31/2027
YES
45¢
NO
55¢
+2%
Implied: 45% YESImplied: 55% NO
Will the NFL expand to 18 regular season games by 2028?
sports•Vol: $0.7M•Ends: 9/1/2028
YES
30¢
NO
70¢
+1.5%
Implied: 30% YESImplied: 70% NO
Will Lionel Messi retire before 2027?
sports•Vol: $1.9M•Ends: 6/30/2027
YES
55¢
NO
45¢
-1%
Implied: 55% YESImplied: 45% NO
Will a team go undefeated in the NFL regular season?
sports•Vol: $0.5M•Ends: 1/15/2027
YES
3¢
NO
97¢
+0.1%
Implied: 3% YESImplied: 97% NO
Will the 2026 World Cup final draw 2B+ viewers?
sports•Vol: $2.3M•Ends: 7/19/2026
YES
65¢
NO
35¢
+3%
Implied: 65% YESImplied: 35% NO
Will global average temperature exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2026?
world•Vol: $0.9M•Ends: 12/31/2026
YES
70¢
NO
30¢
+0.5%
Implied: 70% YESImplied: 30% NO
Will a country adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in 2026?
world•Vol: $0.6M•Ends: 12/31/2026
YES
18¢
NO
82¢
+2.2%
Implied: 18% YESImplied: 82% NO
How to Find Edge in Prediction Markets
1. Identify Mispriced Contracts
If a contract trades at 40¢ YES but you believe the true probability is 55%, the EV = (0.55 × $0.60) − (0.45 × $0.40) = +$0.15 per contract.
2. Apply Kelly Criterion
With a 15-cent edge on a 40¢ contract: b = 0.60/0.40 = 1.5, Kelly = (1.5 × 0.55 − 0.45) / 1.5 = 25%. Quarter-Kelly = 6.25% of bankroll per contract.
3. Diversify Across Markets
Spread your bets across uncorrelated markets. A portfolio of 10+ prediction market positions reduces variance dramatically.